Xi has consolidated enough power in his own hands that if he incorrectly believes he can win or that he has no choice but to fight, he may initiate hostilities even if he considers such a conflict to be high-risk. As a result, Taiwan, the United States, and Japan may consider speeding up joint preparations to ensure that deterrence holds and that their defence capabilities are sufficient to defeat any PRC military coercion effort.
The manner in which a structurally weaker player like the Taliban, post its resurgence, negotiated its way to power is an indication of the complex politico-security environment in Afghanistan. With safe havens and assistance provided by a neighbouring country like Pakistan, it became increasingly difficult to fight and defeat the Taliban insurgency.
The U.S.-led coalition alliance structure in the Indo-Pacific region needs a serious deliberation in order to effectively counter any unwanted moves by China in the free and open geostrategic space called the Indo-Pacific. The reset of the transatlantic alliance is a necessary step in these efforts. Yet, the element of consensus and unilateral agreement on the pointed agenda of protecting the shared values and interests needs to be deliberated sincerely before it is called a success and celebration starts.
The Quad provides an opportunity to demonstrate a new pattern for space diplomacy and if it continues to wield individual expertise and high technologies, as it has done in the Indo-Pacific, the possibility of a peaceful and stable outer space could be well within its reach.
As China and the US continue to compete in the Indo-Pacific region, many aspects including economic development of small states is likely to be shaped by the trajectory of this competition. It remains to be seen how small states in the Indo-Pacific are able to safeguard their development while distancing themselves from the heat of the geopolitics of this region,
All speculations had to bite dust when the military coup took effect on February 1, 2021. Many nations blamed the incident including India, appealing to restore back the democracy in Myanmar. The Tatmadaw are likely to continue its power run in Myanmar, as the country enters a new era of uncertainty.
The various reports that have emerged from the women of Afghanistan, they all indicated a similar sentiment of being abandoned by their nation and by the world. Though the situation is still yet to fully unfold in Afghanistan, based on the history of the Taliban, the future of the country’s women is left hanging in the air.
While the world wrangles with the prospects and challenges coming across from Afghanistan, the constructive role the major powers and neighbouring states of Afghanistan hold to play in bringing about a well-defined and balanced approach is going to be decisive in shaping the future of regional as well as global security environment.
Sri Lanka’s hedging has resulted in a delicate balancing act between India and China. India’s engagement with it in the near future is bound to bring new changes to this equation and to the larger picture of Sino-Indian competition in South Asia.
The importance of international efforts on mutual recognition of national documents of vaccination against COVID-19 and respective testing, especially for purpose of international travel should become a priority agenda for the BRICS countries.