All speculations had to bite dust when the military coup took effect on February 1, 2021. Many nations blamed the incident including India, appealing to restore back the democracy in Myanmar. The Tatmadaw are likely to continue its power run in Myanmar, as the country enters a new era of uncertainty.
The various reports that have emerged from the women of Afghanistan, they all indicated a similar sentiment of being abandoned by their nation and by the world. Though the situation is still yet to fully unfold in Afghanistan, based on the history of the Taliban, the future of the country’s women is left hanging in the air.
While the world wrangles with the prospects and challenges coming across from Afghanistan, the constructive role the major powers and neighbouring states of Afghanistan hold to play in bringing about a well-defined and balanced approach is going to be decisive in shaping the future of regional as well as global security environment.
Sri Lanka’s hedging has resulted in a delicate balancing act between India and China. India’s engagement with it in the near future is bound to bring new changes to this equation and to the larger picture of Sino-Indian competition in South Asia.
Attempts at resuscitation of SAARC is taking place and when the common enemy of COVID-19 enabled unprecedented virtual unions of all member states in the recent past, that the crisis in Afghanistan comes up as a test for the meaningful revival of the lagging regional forum.
The deficit of the Human Security Paradigm in the Afghan state-building endeavour, paved the way to a detached institution- one with which the local Afghan population could just not resonate. This tendency facilitated the resurgence of the Taliban, and it is solely this tendency that spurred crisis after crisis in the country that the whole world had once ambitiously embraced.
The U.S. views India as a credible player in the Indo-Pacific region and it reflects a new momentum in the bilateral relationship. The fact that India and the United States are the world’s most important democracies cannot be overlooked and it has even contributed to the vitality of what is now being regarded as one of the world’s most consequential bilateral relations in the 21st Century.
The US, the decision to execute the process of withdrawal has proved consequential for the regional security environment of South and Central Asia. However, the announcement of a possibility of a quadrilateral diplomatic platform raised certain questions regarding how the US would engage with Afghanistan post-withdrawal of troops.
The Maldivian government has been active in its people about the significance of India’s support and about the fact that their sovereignty will not be compromised. India too must be looking towards not letting its bilateral relations with the Maldives waver from their base of mutual trust and respect.
The situation in Afghanistan is extremely complicated because of the power struggle and the geopolitics at play, which makes it difficult to predict a certain outcome. Newer aspects of the conflict are still unfolding highlighting the convoluted nature of alliances and the multiple factions amongst the state actors themselves.