Nepal would not want to upset China from any front, and accepting programs linked to the US Indo-Pacific strategy can be detrimental to Nepal vis-a-vis China. Hence, winning Nepal’s confidence over the MCC may remain a challenge for the US and including it in its Indo-Pacific strategy a bigger hurdle.
The turmoil in Afghanistan and Europe’s reaction to it, adds to the impression that Europe’s warm reception of Joe Biden is waning. Still, the Afghanistan conundrum is not over; and much is yet to be seen on whether Washington is willing to sit and listen to its western partners.
AUKUS is likely to be a solid organisation to thwart any attempts by China to dominate weaker nations economically. Australia has recently announced defending Taiwan if attacked by China and in such a scenario, the US, UK and other powers are likely to support Australia. A similar situation may arise in any Chinese-dominated countries in the Indo-Pacific region, where AUKUS will have a significant role to play.
The interlaced negotiation between a state and US designated terror group doesn’t bode well for the credibility of Pakistan and only highlights the perverse nature of the state. In Pakistan’s case, domestic and external affairs cannot exist in isolation and they will continue to affect each other
As there are growing criticisms against the alleged human rights violations in Xinjinag region on the Uygher Muslim community and re-education camps in the region, amidst the disappearances of public figures from the social media platforms, it will be interesting to see how China would react. The diplomatic boycott of winter Olympics in China by the US and Australia have already sparked new wave of tensions, which many countries are expected to follow
Afghanistan’s potency in world politics is arguably eternal. For the QUAD, this presents an opportunity to expand into the continental aspect of the Indo-Pacific. While a QUAD-led military intervention appears unlikely in the near future, humanitarian assistance and cooperation over shared counter-terrorism policies emerge as viable avenues for the partner nations to pursue their common strategic interests in Afghanistan
Afghanistan occupies a central position in the South Asian region, and supporting them would not only benefit them but also help in the prosperity of the region in a medium- and long-term basis. A collapse of Afghanistan could have a detrimental impact on the Indo-Pacific region, and it is important for each country, not only India, to take a humanitarian approach to help those who seek asylum.
The manner in which a structurally weaker player like the Taliban, post its resurgence, negotiated its way to power is an indication of the complex politico-security environment in Afghanistan. With safe havens and assistance provided by a neighbouring country like Pakistan, it became increasingly difficult to fight and defeat the Taliban insurgency.
President Xi himself knows that any military invasion over Taiwan may or may not lead to a full-scale war with other countries. But diplomatic and political pressure will be enormous and even the economic consequences can be disastrous for China as well.
Taiwan’s prolonged political and economic distance from the Mainland China has created sufficient space and time for emergence of separate identity with the territory and people of Taiwan. The tension will continue between China and Taiwan as Taiwan considers itself a sovereign state, while China views it as a breakaway province.